Until the Indiana primary two days ago I saw a fair chance for the GOP traditional candidates to keep sufficiently up with Trump so that the candidacy could be decided at the GOP's National Convention in Cleveland in a couple of months. But then Cruz had such a weak showing that he decided to get out of the race. That move prompted the third candidate, Kasich, to give up as well, leaving Trump the only contender and thus the obvious choice for the official GOP nominee.
This dramatic development occurred despite the fact that Cruz had already—and in hindsight prematurely—announced his running mate, Fiorina. When he did that I thought this was tactically a smart move: it gives the voters a clear(er) picture of the political orientation to expect from him so the right wing GOP voters would lift him up a bit more ... It didn't work, possibly for the very same reason; perhaps also because strategically it wasn't a smart move to make this choice without knowing who his Democratic opponent would be (although it is somewhat predictable).
Another noteworthy development came the next day, Thursday, when House Speaker Paul Ryan announced that he would not support Trump as the presidential candidate. Does this mean that even if Trump collects more than the minimal number of delegates for his nomination that the National Convention will propose a counter candidate and vote Trump out? In view of the fact that both former presidents Bush have also voiced their non-support for Trump this is becoming likely.
But in this case, how will the GOP voters feel who voted for Trump in the primaries? Will they be disgusted by the GOP's internal inconsistency and support the Democratic candidate? ... who most likely will be H. Clinton. And now GOP leaders are saying that the voters should unite behind their leadership again and
This whole disorder may develop into an unexpected result: not only will the next president be a Democrat again but also Congress will have a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate.
April 20, 2017 — I am back from Germany since end of February, and now back from Philadelphia since last week. Looking at the thoughts from before the election now, it's clear that my usual optimism was totally misplaced. There is no need for further analysis; we've got to live through it and at most hope for a change after the mid-term elections.
It is October 2017 now, and most things Trump promised to achieve did not happen – partly because so far he didn't even attempt to go about it but also because the GOP and Congress couldn't get the votes together. In particular this was the case with the repeal of Obama's ACA (aka Obamacare) where some GOP senators felt the consequences of the proposed new health care act did too much damage while others felt it didn't go far enough ... (How laughable is that?)
And not only most of the world leaders but also the American people have come to the conclusion that Trump doesn't know what he is doing, that he cannot express himself adequately when he addresses topics in public that require presidential comments. The latest example is his visit to Puerto Rico after hurricane Maria had devastated that island, and where he went two weeks after the event and had only trivialities to say and added insults to the victims, including the mayor who had asked for help, pointing out that people were dying because of federal inactivity or delays. In short, Trump can't rise to the occasions, clowns around with his hyped promises and statements, and neglects his presidential duties.
Not that we should get rid of him – any talk about impeachment (for instance for unsuitability for the office) has subsided; i think we should keep him because that does the least harm to the society. The GOP members in Congress think perhaps the same, and in addition the current status allows them to get some of their agenda done ... behind the scene. There is a mid-term electing coming up in 2018 where the GOP will have (I hope) a tough time.
